Economic Calendar

Find the event you see in the calendar to learn what it measures and why it can move a currency. A result far from the forecast usually matters more than the number itself. Example numbers are invented, not current releases or forecasts.

1. CENTRAL BANKOften listed as: Interest Rate Decision

   Interest-rate decisions

   A central bank announces its policy rate and explains its outlook. This influences borrowing costs, although your bank’s loan rate is different.

   Why it matters: Currencies can react when a decision or statement changes expectations about future rates. Higher rates do not guarantee a stronger currency.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   If everyone expects a shop’s delivery fee to rise from 5 to 6, a rise to 8 is the bigger surprise. Likewise, an expected rate increase may already be reflected in prices; an unexpected hold can matter more.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: Interest rateSource: Federal Reserve meetings ↗
2. INFLATIONOften listed as: CPI YoY, CPI MoM

   Consumer Price Index (CPI)

   CPI tracks price changes for a basket of consumer goods and services. Monthly and yearly inflation rates answer different questions.

   Why it matters: An inflation surprise can change expectations about rates and purchasing power. Other news and starting expectations still matter.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   A shopping basket costing 100, then 104 a year later, has risen 4%. In an invented release, 3% inflation against a 2% forecast is a bigger upside surprise than 4% against a 4% forecast.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: InflationSource: BLS consumer prices ↗
3. INFLATIONOften listed as: Core CPI YoY, Core CPI MoM

   Core inflation

   US core CPI excludes food and energy to examine other price trends. This does not mean food and fuel are unimportant to households.

   Why it matters: Unexpected core inflation can change views about persistent price pressure. Headline and core figures tell different parts of the story.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   Cheaper fuel can lower your total spending while rent keeps rising. A fictional 0.4% monthly core rise against a 0.2% forecast may surprise readers even if headline inflation falls.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: InflationSource: BLS consumer prices ↗
4. EMPLOYMENT DATAOften listed as: Non Farm Payrolls

   US jobs report: nonfarm payrolls

   Payrolls estimate the monthly change in covered employer jobs, not unique people. The broader report also covers unemployment and wages.

   Why it matters: Unexpected hiring can change views about demand and policy. Revisions to earlier months also matter.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   A café planning two new hires but making five has exceeded its plan. Conversely, an invented gain of 150,000 jobs can disappoint a 200,000 forecast despite being positive.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: Economic calendarSource: BLS Employment Situation ↗
5. EMPLOYMENT DATAOften listed as: Unemployment Rate

   Unemployment rate

   The US rate is the unemployed share of the labour force, measured through a household survey rather than the employer payroll survey.

   Why it matters: A surprise can change perceptions of employment strength. A falling rate can reflect new jobs or people leaving the labour force.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   If 10 of 100 people in the labour force are unemployed, the rate is 10%. A fictional 4.5% rate against a 4.0% forecast raises different questions from 4.5% against 4.5%.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: Economic calendarSource: BLS labour-force concepts ↗
6. EMPLOYMENT DATAOften listed as: Average Hourly Earnings

   Average hourly earnings

   This tracks average hourly pay for covered US payroll employees. Changes in the mix of workers can affect the average.

   Why it matters: Unexpected wage growth can alter views about spending and inflation. Read it alongside employment and hours worked.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   Hiring a senior manager can raise a shop’s average wage without existing staff getting raises. A fictional 0.4% monthly earnings rise against a 0.2% forecast is a surprise, but its causes still need checking.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: Economic calendarSource: BLS Employment Situation ↗
7. GROWTHOften listed as: GDP Growth Rate

   Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

   GDP measures final goods and services produced within an economy. Real GDP adjusts for price changes. Check whether a rate is quarterly, yearly or annualised.

   Why it matters: Unexpected growth can change views about demand and policy. Early estimates can be revised.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   A bakery making more bread increases output; sales rising only because prices rose are different. Fictional growth of 2% against a 1% forecast is a different surprise from 2% against 3%. Compare the same measurement basis.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: Gross domestic productSource: BEA GDP guide ↗
8. BUSINESS SURVEYOften listed as: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI

   Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

   Business surveys track conditions such as orders and activity. For headline ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, above 50 generally signals sector expansion and below 50 contraction, not a percentage growth rate.

   Why it matters: Survey surprises can change expectations before slower official statistics arrive. Manufacturing, services and different providers’ surveys are not interchangeable.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   More shops reporting busier trade suggests improvement, not an exact sales increase. A fictional PMI of 51 against a 54 forecast still indicates expansion but is weaker than expected.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: Economic calendarSource: ISM PMI reports ↗
9. CONSUMER SPENDINGOften listed as: Retail Sales MoM

   Retail sales

   US retail and food-services sales estimate spending at covered businesses. Headline dollar figures are not adjusted for price changes.

   Why it matters: A spending surprise can change views about demand. Revisions and categories such as vehicles can affect the headline.

   Everyday example and the surprise

   Your grocery bill can rise from 50 to 55 because prices rose, even with the same basket. An invented 0.5% sales increase against a 1% forecast is below expectations despite showing an increase.

   Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: Economic calendarSource: US Census retail-trade definitions ↗
10. CENTRAL BANKOften listed as: CBK Interest Rate Decision

    Central Bank of Kenya meetings

    The Monetary Policy Committee reviews Kenya’s monetary-policy stance and announces Central Bank Rate decisions. Read the official explanation and outlook too.

    Why it matters: A surprise can change expectations about borrowing costs and the shilling. Local conditions and global developments also matter; no exchange-rate response is guaranteed.

    Everyday example and the surprise

    An expected fee change already in your household budget adds little new information. Similarly, an expected CBK decision may surprise less than a different decision or unexpected guidance. This does not predict the next meeting.

    Lesson: Use an economic calendar safely →Related term: Central bankSource: CBK monetary policy ↗